{"id":3585,"date":"2024-11-23T19:12:28","date_gmt":"2024-11-23T11:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.takingso.com\/?p=3585"},"modified":"2024-11-23T19:12:28","modified_gmt":"2024-11-23T11:12:28","slug":"vitalik-%e6%96%b0%e6%96%87%ef%bc%9a%e4%bb%8e%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e5%88%b0%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d-polymarket-%e4%b8%ba%e4%bd%95%e8%ae%a9%e6%88%91%e5%85%b4%e5%a5%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xztj168.com\/?p=3585","title":{"rendered":"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"article-content content pt-5\">\n<div>\n<blockquote><p>\n     \u6700\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b\u7684\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u5e94\u7528\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u3002\n   <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aVitalik\uff0c\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u521b\u59cb\u4eba<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7f16\u8bd1\uff1a0xjs@\u91d1\u8272\u8d22\u7ecf<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b\u7684\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u5e94\u7528\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u30022014 \u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u64b0\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e futarchy \u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f Robin Hanson \u6784\u60f3\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u65e9\u5728 2015 \u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u662f Augur \u7684\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7528\u6237\u548c\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff08\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u5728\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff09\u3002\u6211\u5728 2020 \u5e74\u5927\u9009\u6295\u6ce8\u4e2d\u8d5a\u4e86 58,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u662f Polymarket \u7684\u5bc6\u5207\u652f\u6301\u8005\u548c\u8ffd\u968f\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u9009\u4e3e\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u9009\u4e3e\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5c31\u662f\u8d4c\u535a\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u4eab\u53d7\u4e50\u8da3\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u592a\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u5b83\u5e76\u4e0d\u6bd4\u5728 pump.fun \u4e0a\u8d2d\u4e70\u968f\u673a\u4ee3\u5e01\u66f4\u6709\u8da3\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u65e8\u5728\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u7b80\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1 (i) \u5373\u4f7f\u73b0\u5b58\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u6765\u8bf4\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u7528\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f46\u6b64\u5916 (ii) \u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5927\u3001\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5b83\u6709\u6f5c\u529b\u521b\u9020\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u65b0\u95fb\u3001\u6cbb\u7406\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u6211\u5c06\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7c7b\u522b\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d\uff08info finance\uff09\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket \u7684\u4e24\u9762\u6027\uff1a\u4e3a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f51\u7ad9\uff0c\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51\u7ad9<\/h2>\n<p>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4e00\u5468\u4e2d\uff0cPolymarket \u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u6709\u5173\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u6548\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u6e90\u3002Polymarket \u4e0d\u4ec5\u9884\u6d4b\u7279\u6717\u666e\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u4e3a 60\/40\uff08\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u6d88\u606f\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a 50\/50\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u4e0d\u592a\u4ee4\u4eba\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\uff09\uff0c\u8fd8\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u4f18\u70b9\uff1a\u5f53\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u6765\u65f6\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8bb8\u591a\u4e13\u5bb6\u548c\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5f15\u8bf1\u89c2\u4f17\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u542c\u5230\u5bf9\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u6709\u5229\u7684\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u4f46 Polymarket \u5374\u76f4\u63a5\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u771f\u76f8\uff1a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7 95%\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u593a\u53d6\u6240\u6709\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7 90%\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/img.bitgetimg.com\/multiLang\/image\/social\/7413c64af2435d1dc134dd74358f534b1731233485835.jpg\" alt=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b image 0\" title=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b\u63d2\u56fe\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/img.bitgetimg.com\/multiLang\/image\/social\/edf5df7e3ed3ef2411734e9cf636a7c71731233485970.jpg\" alt=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b image 1\" title=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b\u63d2\u56fe1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4e24\u5f20\u622a\u56fe\u5747\u62cd\u6444\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e1c\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4 11 \u6708 6 \u65e5\u51cc\u6668 3:40<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u662f Polymarket \u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u770b\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a7 \u6708\u4efd\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u3002\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u8bb0\u5f97\u773c\u89d2\u4f59\u5149\u770b\u5230\u6709\u4eba\u5728\u6297\u8bae\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u88ab\u9ad8\u5ea6\u64cd\u7eb5\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8d77\u521d\uff0c\u6211\u6ca1\u600e\u4e48\u5728\u610f\u3002\u6211\u77e5\u9053\u9a6c\u675c\u7f57\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u201c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u201d\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u60f3\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f53\u7136\u4f1a\u4f2a\u9020\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u4fdd\u4f4f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u4f1a\u6709\u4eba\u6297\u8bae\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u6297\u8bae\u4f1a\u5931\u8d25\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u90fd\u5931\u8d25\u4e86\u3002\u4f46\u540e\u6765\u6211\u5728 Polymarket \u4e0a\u6eda\u52a8\u6d4f\u89c8\u65f6\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/img.bitgetimg.com\/multiLang\/image\/social\/047b3b183a47a32091ab777ce22558411731233486032.jpg\" alt=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b image 2\" title=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b\u63d2\u56fe2\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4eba\u4eec\u613f\u610f\u6295\u5165\u5341\u591a\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6253\u8d4c\u9a6c\u675c\u7f57\u5728\u8fd9\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a 23%\u3002 \u73b0\u5728\u6211\u5f00\u59cb\u5173\u6ce8\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u4e0d\u5e78\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u9a6c\u675c\u7f57\u786e\u5b9e\u7ee7\u7eed\u638c\u6743\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8ba9\u6211\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u63a8\u7ffb\u9a6c\u675c\u7f57\u7684\u4f01\u56fe\u662f\u8ba4\u771f\u7684\u3002\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8\u89c4\u6a21\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u6599\u5730\u6267\u884c\u826f\u597d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5411\u4e16\u754c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u9009\u4e3e\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u7684\u6b3a\u8bc8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u6ca1\u6709\u6536\u5230 Polymarket \u6700\u521d\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u201c\u8fd9\u6b21\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u201d\uff0c\u6211\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f00\u59cb\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u4fe1 Polymarket \u62bc\u6ce8\u56fe\u8868\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u76f8\u4fe1\u62bc\u6ce8\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u94b1\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u64cd\u7eb5\u62bc\u6ce8\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u6562\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u6253\u8d4c\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u4fe1\u65b0\u95fb\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u574f\u4e3b\u610f\u3002\u65b0\u95fb\u6709\u717d\u60c5\u7684\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u70b9\u51fb\u91cf\u800c\u5938\u5927\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u6709\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u7bc7\u8038\u4eba\u542c\u95fb\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u4f46\u968f\u540e\u4f60\u53bb\u5e02\u573a\u53d1\u73b0\u76f8\u5173\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6000\u7591\u4e5f\u662f\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\u3002\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u610f\u5916\u7684\u9ad8\u6216\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u610f\u5916\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u8ba9\u4f60\u901a\u8bfb\u65b0\u95fb\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u539f\u56e0\u9020\u6210\u7684\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u4e0e\u5355\u72ec\u9605\u8bfb\u5176\u4e2d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u79cd\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u9605\u8bfb\u65b0\u95fb\u548c\u62bc\u6ce8\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u987e\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u91cc\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u535a\u5f69\u73a9\u5bb6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5411 Polymarket \u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f60\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u535a\u5f69\u7f51\u7ad9\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u662f\u535a\u5f69\u73a9\u5bb6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u9605\u8bfb\u62bc\u6ce8\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f60\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51\u7ad9\u3002\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u4fe1\u62bc\u6ce8\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c06\u9605\u8bfb\u62bc\u6ce8\u56fe\u8868\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6211\u4fe1\u606f\u6536\u96c6\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\uff08\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u5a92\u4f53\u548c\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e00\u8d77\uff09\uff0c\u5b83\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u83b7\u53d6\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d \u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u610f\u4e49<\/h2>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u5165\u91cd\u8981\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u53ea\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u91d1\u878d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u534f\u8c03\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4e3a\u89c2\u4f17\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\uff1a\u96be\u9053\u6240\u6709\u91d1\u878d\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\u4e0d\u662f\u90fd\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u6709\u5173\u5417\uff1f \u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4f1a\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e70\u5356\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff08\u9664\u4e86\u4e2a\u4eba\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5982\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u548c\u5bf9\u51b2\u613f\u671b\uff09\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u9605\u8bfb\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u6765\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u5f88\u591a\u5173\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002\u4e0e\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5de5\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d\u662f\u4e00\u95e8\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u5b83\u8981\u6c42\u4f60 (i) \u4ece\u4f60\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u7136\u540e (ii) \u523b\u610f\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4ee5\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u5f0f\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u90a3\u91cc\u83b7\u53d6\u8be5\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/img.bitgetimg.com\/multiLang\/image\/social\/85df71724d915227cfcc51e73a43d1a91731233486089.jpg\" alt=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b image 3\" title=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b\u63d2\u56fe3\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e09\u8fb9\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u505a\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u9605\u8bfb\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u516c\u5171\u7269\u54c1\u8f93\u51fa\uff08\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u5b83\u88ab\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u4f60\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u62bc\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u51b3\u7b56\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u4f60\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u6839\u636e\u67d0\u4e2a\u6307\u6807 M\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56 A \u548c\u51b3\u7b56 B \u54ea\u4e2a\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u4f60\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u4f60\u8981\u6c42\u4eba\u4eec\u62bc\u6ce8 (i) \u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u54ea\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c(ii) \u5982\u679c\u9009\u62e9\u51b3\u7b56 A\uff0c\u5219 \u5f97\u5230 M \u7684\u503c\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c(iii) \u5982\u679c\u9009\u62e9\u51b3\u7b56 B\uff0c\u5219\u5f97\u5230 M \u7684\u503c\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u6709\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u8ba4\u4e3a\u51b3\u7b56 A \u6216\u51b3\u7b56 B \u5bf9\u5f97\u5230 M \u7684\u503c\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/img.bitgetimg.com\/multiLang\/image\/social\/edaabf479d7bef5b3c37d017573734931731233486159.jpg\" alt=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b image 4\" title=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b\u63d2\u56fe4\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u6280\u672f\u662f AI\uff08\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u662f\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u6700\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u90fd\u4e0e\u201c\u5fae\u89c2\u201d\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u5173\uff1a\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4e2a\u5c0f\u578b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5355\u72ec\u6765\u770b\u5f71\u54cd\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4f4e\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u901a\u5e38\u65e0\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff1a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u82b1\u65f6\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u8be6\u7ec6\u5206\u6790\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u83b7\u5f97\u51e0\u767e\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u751a\u81f3\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u8865\u8d34\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9664\u4e86\u6700\u5e9e\u5927\u548c\u6700\u8f70\u52a8\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u5e7c\u7a1a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8ba9\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4ece\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u3002AI \u5b8c\u5168\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4e3a 10 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u76f8\u5f53\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u9700\u8981\u8865\u8d34\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8865\u8d34\u6570\u989d\u4e5f\u53d8\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u5b9e\u60e0\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d\u9700\u8981\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u84b8\u998f\uff08distilled\uff09<\/h2>\n<h3>\u5224\u65ad<\/h3>\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u4fe1\u8d56\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u5224\u65ad\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8be5\u673a\u5236\u5177\u6709\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u533a\u4fe1\u4efb\u5b83\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u505a\u51fa\u5224\u65ad\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u9ad8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u5e0c\u671b\u4ee5\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u5b9e\u65f6\u8bbf\u95ee\u8be5\u201c\u6602\u8d35\u673a\u5236\u201d\u7684\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u526f\u672c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f Robin Hanson \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff1a\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u90fd\u4f1a\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5982\u679c\u8c03\u7528\u8be5\u6602\u8d35\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u8be5\u673a\u5236\u5c06\u5bf9\u51b3\u5b9a\u505a\u51fa\u4ec0\u4e48\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4f60\u8ba9\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u5e76\u6295\u5165\u5c11\u91cf\u8d44\u91d1\u6765\u8865\u8d34\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u3002<\/p>\n<p>99.99% \u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u4f60\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8c03\u7528\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff1a\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4f60\u4f1a\u201c\u64a4\u9500\u4ea4\u6613\u201d\u5e76\u8fd4\u8fd8\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4f60\u53ea\u662f\u7ed9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u96f6\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4f60\u770b\u770b\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u5426\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1 0 \u6216 1 \u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u57fa\u672c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u30020.01% \u7684\u65f6\u95f4 &#8211; \u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u5408 &#8211; \u4f60\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4f1a\u8fd0\u884c\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u636e\u6b64\u8865\u507f\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e3a\u4f60\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4fe1\u3001\u4e2d\u7acb \u3001\u5feb\u901f\u4e14\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684\u201c\u84b8\u998f\u7248\u672c\u201d\uff0c\u8be5\u7248\u672c\u662f\u4f60\u539f\u6765\u9ad8\u5ea6\u53ef\u4fe1\u4f46\u6210\u672c\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff08\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u84b8\u998f\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u7c7b\u6bd4 LLM \u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u84b8\u998f distilled\u201d\uff09\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u84b8\u998f\u673a\u5236\u5927\u81f4\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u539f\u59cb\u673a\u5236\u7684\u884c\u4e3a &#8211; \u56e0\u4e3a\u53ea\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u5b9e\u73b0\u8be5\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u624d\u80fd\u8d5a\u94b1\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5219\u4f1a\u8d54\u94b1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/img.bitgetimg.com\/multiLang\/image\/social\/42b120996c83070f3ba4d242711f440e1731233486236.jpg\" alt=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b image 5\" title=\"Vitalik \u65b0\u6587\uff1a\u4ece\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u4fe1\u606f\u91d1\u878d Polymarket \u4e3a\u4f55\u8ba9\u6211\u5174\u594b\u63d2\u56fe5\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a + \u793e\u533a\u7b14\u8bb0\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\uff0c\u4e5f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e DAO\u3002DAO 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